Margin of safety is simply a value stock investing model where the investor assigns a margin of safety to his/her value assessments. In value investing, the investor estimates (or predicts) the intrinsic value of a stock. The concept is that every stock has an intrinsic value and price changes from this intrinsic value is just deviations resulting from the actions of market forces. The stock will often return to its intrinsic value when the market forces weaken.

Thus investors who buy stocks when the trading price is below the intrinsic value and investors who sell stocks when the trading price is above the intrinsic value will profit. But what make value investing difficult is predicting the intrinsic value of stock. There are no established rules for finding out this. Investors should develop their own strategies and models for this purpose, according to availability of information and analysis tools he has.

Many traders use different indicators like book value, open offer, P/E ratio, asset to liability ratio, institutional investments, investments in other companies, etc to finding the intrinsic value of the stock.Margin of safety investing strategy easily overcome this difficulty of predicting the intrinsic value. Investors assign a safety margin as percent of predicted intrinsic value (usually is 30 to 40 percent of intrinsic value).

Margin of safety investors only buy stocks when they are trading below margin of safety. In this way he/she can minimize the risk/error of predicting the intrinsic value. The more the percentage of margin of safety the lower the chance of risk, and the better the chance of profit. For example is the predicted intrinsic value of a stock is $10 and margin of safety is 30%, then the trader only buys the stock if the current trading price is below $7 ($10 – 30% of $10). If the actual intrinsic value is only $9, and the stock returns to this level, the investor will have a profit worth $2. The main advantage of margin of safety investing strategy is that it offers a margin rather than a fixed price to reduce risk.

It favors all type of investors, both experienced and novice investors, and does not necessitates any position sizing or market performance requirements. But the disadvantages are that it does not present any rules for assigning margin of safety and does not consider market factors. Also there is chance of substantial loss when margin of safety is less and scarcity of opportunities when margin of safety is high.

Since, unlike conventional instruments, CFDs  and spread bets do not confer ownership of the underlying asset – traders buy or sell the price movement in the underlying equity without ever taking delivery of it – neither is subject to stamp duty. And because spread betting falls within the gaming laws, it is also exempt from Capital Gains Tax.

The other key appeal of spread betting is that, as a margin product, it enables traders to gear up their investments. And because, as a margin product, traders could potentially lose a multiple of their initial stake, spread betting is recommended for use only by professionals, day traders and experienced investors.

But while there are risks attached to spread betting, there are various tools available – such as guaranteed stop losses – that can help manage that risk by, for example, inputting to the system parameters to alert traders to specified price movements. Another reason for the recent growth in the popularity of spread betting can be attributed to the fact that, in addition to speculating on the underlying equity, investors can trade on the various indices. Indeed, spread betting enables traders to profit from both up and down movements on a wide variety of financial markets, whether indices, individual shares or commodities, such as gold or crude oil.

Unlike fixed odds betting, under spread betting traders don’t risk a certain amount per bet, and there is no fixed profit or loss. That’s because the profit and loss on a financial spread bet is always open as the trader is betting a stake – usually pounds per point – on the direction of the market.

For example, a trader might expect the FTSE 100 index to rise and so decide to buy it at £2 a point using a spread bet. If the trader bought the FTSE 100 index at 4950, risking £2 a point, and then sold it when it rallied 50 points to 5000, his profit would be £100. But if the index moved lower and the trader subsequently sold his bet at 4925 to take a loss, then he would lose £50.

This is the difference between fixed odds betting and spread betting – a trader’s ultimate profit and loss with spread betting is never known until he liquidates the bet.

Using spread bets a trader can also bet on a downward market by selling short. If he was bearish towards the FTSE 100, expecting lower prices in the future, then he could sell the index short at say the market price of 4950, and then cover this bet or buy it back at 4900. If his stake was £2 a point then his profit would be a tax-free £100.

But if his view is incorrect and the FTSE 100 rises, and so he decides to take a loss by buying back his down-bet or short trade at 5000, losing 50 points multiplied by his £2 stake represents a £100 loss.

The most significant cost in spread betting is the spread – the difference between the bid and the offer price – and this is the main reason why hedge funds use CFDs and not spread bets. The wider the spread, the more a speculator will pay to trade.
Fortunately, though, spreads are getting tighter due to increased competition as investors are beginning to realise the advantages of financial spread betting.

Spread betting appeals to the same kind of market as CFDs, namely experienced traders, active in the market who understand the risks associated with margins and gearing. Much of spread betting can be short-term trades, volume-based, high volume day traders coming in and out of positions.

Experienced traders all spread bet for the simple reason that if they can make £10,000 from spread betting, then they can keep £10,000 spread betting, rather than handing over a significant proportion of it to the taxman.

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